2008
EMSS 2008 Proceeding
Demand forecasting and lot sizing heuristics to generate cost effective production plans: a simulation study on a company in the wood floors sector
Authors: Lorenzo Tiacci, Stefano Saetta
Abstract
Master Production Scheduling (MPS) is a very important activity in manufacturing planning and control because the quality of the MPS can significantly influence the total cost. Unfortunately, many companies do not know their future demands and have to rely on demand forecasts to make production planning decisions. Thus in many cases companies must first select a good forecasting method, and then use forecasted demand as input to the planning phase. The paper presents a simulation study, conducted on an industrial case, of these two phases selection of the most appropriate forecasting method, and production planning through forecasted demands. The aim is double to quantify improvements, in terms of total costs decrease, with respect to the actual company policy; to evaluate the impact on total costs of the demand forecasting method inaccuracy.
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