MAS 2012 Proceeding

Start-up business success prediction by means of artificial neural networks

Authors:   Francisco García Fernadez, Ignacio Soret Los Santos, Santiago Izquierdo, Francisco Llamazares Redondo, Francisco José Blanco Jiménez


There is a great interest to know if a new company will be able to survive or not. Investors use different tools to evaluate the survival capabilities of middle-aged companies but there is not any tool for start-up ones. Most of the tools are based on regression models and in quantitative variables. Nevertheless, qualitative variables which measure the company way of work and the manager skills can be considered as important as quantitative ones. Develop a global regression model that includes quantitative and qualitative variables can be very complicated. In this study, a more powerful modeling tool is used to predict the company early years success. Artificial neural networks can be a very useful tool to model the company survival capabilities. They have been large specially used in engineering processes modeling, but also in economy and business modeling.

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