MAS 2012 Proceeding

Simulation of uncertainty in rainfall-runoff models and their statistical evaluation in the FLOREON+ system

Authors:   ?tepán Kuchar, Tomá? Kocyan, Pavel Praks, Martina Litschmannová, Jan Martinovic, Vít Vondrák


Floods are the most frequent natural disasters affecting the Moravian-Silesian region. Therefore a system that could predict flood extents and help in the operative disaster management was requested. The FLOREON+ system was created to fulfil these requests. This article describes statistical evaluation of the rainfall-runoff models in the FLOREON+ system and modelling of uncertainty in the environment parameters of the model. The Monte-Carlo simulation method is used for estimating possible river discharge volumes based on the uncertainty of precipitation and meteorology forecast and provides several confidence intervals that can support the decisions in the operational disaster management. Experiments with other environment parameters and their influence on final river discharge volumes are also discussed.

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