Authors:   O. P. Robert, C. Kumsap, A. Janpengpen

Abstract

This research paper reports the methodology that adopted Potential Surface Analysis to model drug trafficking routes that led to social problems and public health deterioration in Thailand, the region and most parts of the world. With the final output aimed at creating military training scenarios to be included in a fire-arms training simulator of the Royal Thai Army, real world data from Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were prepared and used as Earth 'Surface' data upon which an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was performed. Before that process, roundtable discussions among expert of the filed were held to achieve factors and their ratings. Weightings and ratings were based on debate brought to the table from experiences, knowledge, expertise and judgments that ended up with mutual agreement. Physical, drug-aspect and Socio- demographic factors were identified as three main factors and their sub-factors were further separated to respond to drug-trafficking in reality. The factors seem literally diverse so that the Consistency Measure stepped in to ensure the consistency of each weighting and rating significance. Since the calculated Consistency Ratio (CR) was 0.0944, the significance of all the factors became less than 0.10, making the consistency reasonably acceptable. The Potential Surface Analysis (PSA) took form of suitability map that revealed the potential of GIS vector layers that suited drug-trafficking routes. Areas of most suitability were cross-checked to find that they corresponded with recorded drug-trafficking routes. It was securely concluded that the PSA was the proper method adopted to model a drug trafficking route given the studied factors. The project was carried on to simulate the real terrain of real events that passed more realism to military training scenarios in an army simulator.